A stunner in Cleveland

May 10, 2013

Posted by joy.the.curious on May 9, 2013 in Jacob | 7 comments

If you’re like me, the news about the three young women who were rescued in Cleveland earlier this week left you completely stunned. I was getting ready for work when the news came on the TV. I walked over, turned up the volume, and stood there transfixed. Three young women… missing for ten years… all found. What are the odds?

Well, the odds are not good, I’m afraid. But still… if it can happen in Cleveland…

I have a feeling there’s a lot to be learned from this story. For one thing, all three young women were abducted within blocks of one another. They were found living in a home only three miles from where they were abducted. The person who took them, Ariel Castro, was a school bus driver. And his own daughter had been a friend of one of the girls (Gina DeJesus).

So, what can be learned from this?

Again, I go back to the idea that maybe Jacob’s disappearance isn’t that complicated after all. Maybe it’s just a matter of probabilities. In my last post, I referenced a report that analyzed the demographic and psychological profiles of pedophiles who ABDUCT their victims vs. those who don’t. The main difference was that pedophiles who ABDUCT had lower social skills than non-abductors and a lower amount of contact with children.

In addition, there was another table further back in the report (page 76 of the PDF) which showed more details of the abductor’s profile.

Child Molesters Who Abduct Children

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I think the most telling piece of information in this table is the statistic showing “Relationship to Victims.” In the case of the abductor, they knew their victims 66% of the time. That’s a pretty big percentage. Breaking that down further, 58% of the victims were “acquaintances” of the abductor, and 8% were family members.

Using this information, we can continue to build on the profile we started earlier. In particular, there’s more than a 50% chance that Jacob’s abductor knew him or his family (even if it was only remotely).

Another thing I think we can learn from the Cleveland case is that there’s no such thing as coincidence. One person took all three girls. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that another boy, Jared, was abducted and sexually assaulted only 10 months prior to Jacob’s disappearance. It was in a town less than 10 miles away, and the M.O.’s were eerily similar (i.e., the abductor in both cases said, “Start running and don’t turn around or I’ll shoot.”). Also, the car used in Jared’s abduction was a small, dark, compact… described as being similar to a Chevy Celebrity. Keep in mind, the car Dan witnessed turning around in his driveway at about the time Jacob was abducted was also a small, dark, compact.

Interesting.

Speaking of cars… this week, a colleague of Dan Rassier’s put him in touch with a former resident from St. Joseph who used to live near the Tom Thumb. She told him that in the days prior to Jacob’s abduction, there were some suspicious cars lurking around the neighborhood, which she and her husband reported to police. I plan to speak to these former St. Joseph residents in my next blog post.

In the meantime, please say a prayer of gratitude for the three young women who were rescued and returned to their families this week. Also, say a prayer of hope for Jacob. After all, if it can happen in Cleveland…

Next time

Dan Rassier is interviewed by Esme Murphy, an investigative journalist with WCCO News in Minneapolis…

7 Comments

ELOCsoul | May 10, 2013 at 7:43 pm
Just in case anyone thinks that Dan Rassier is just now giving us this story about seeing a small car turn around in his driveway, below is an excerpt from the October 24, 1989 St Cloud Times article follow Jacob’s abduction.
“I saw headlights kind of close together, like a small car,” said Dan Rassier, who lives on a farm at (xxxxx) (XX)st Avenue. “It caught my attention because it’s unusual for a car to be out here at that time.”
A bloodhound from the Minneapolis police department led officers to the tire tracks, confirming their hunch that the man had a car nearby.
sue dressel | May 11, 2013 at 9:24 am
And’didn’t the abductor say either “do you know me” or “do you recognize me”? Leading me to believe that yes, indeed, he knew the boys….confirming.the 66% figure.
joy.the.curious | May 11, 2013 at 1:38 pm
Thank you ELOCsoul! I’d like to find more articles like this from around the time of the abduction.
ELOCsoul | May 13, 2013 at 5:48 am
The following is reposted from comments I made on a web forum dedicated to Jacob’s case:
Last fall I had the opportunity to visit the abduction site at night, and I hope to give thread followers a better “picture” of the area, and clear up some confusion and misconceptions regarding various issues of Jacob’s case. Some have questioned the possibility of a car being involved because Trevor and Aaron have said there was no car. Some have questioned the driveway looking like a road back in 1989 (there was no pavement on the street back then).
Here are my observations of the physical environment at the site of Jacob’s abduction:
1. This area is very DARK at night!! I cannot stress this enough. I was there about 10pm at night, last Thursday night. There was ¼ moon, partly cloudy skies, and occasional lightning. There is no yardlight in the DR property driveway from the road up to the 90 degree sweeping left hand turn. If there is a light near the house, you cannot see it or any indication of a light from the road that goes by the property. Heading south from DR’s property, you can only see a few yardlights in the cul de sacs at the end of the road, about ½ mile away. To the east and west, you can only see the tops of the tree line against the sky. Looking north, there is some light from the city above the tree line. However, the city has grown considerably the past 23 years, so I can only imagine the light from the city was even less visible in 1989. With my headlights off, I could see nothing clearly, only the treelines in some areas. Remember, this was with a partial moon. On the night of the abduction, there was no moon until after 2:00am or so.
2. The surrounding woods are very THICK! Maybe they were not so thick in 1989, but I suspect that they were. The trees are thick as it is, but on top of that there is significant underbrush everywhere you look (I was there in the daytime too!). Before my visit I had designs on walking through some of the woods, but they looked impassable to me in broad daylight, let alone at night.
3. The DR family residence is WELL HIDDEN from view by the trees between the house and the road, 9th / 16th St. The house is not visible from any portion of the street, nor from highway 75 coming in from St Cloud. The only building really visible from any road is a long gray colored barn that runs east and west. From 9th/ 16th, you can only see that barn when you are heading north, toward St Joseph. A driver in a car heading south and turning into the driveway would not see any buildings unless they turned into the driveway and drive almost all the way back. From aerial photos we know there are actually several buildings on the property. Also, I walked by the property twice, and could not see more than 20… through the dense woods, and the woods are at least 100… deep.
4. I don…t believe this has been mentioned before, but there is a fairly steep hill that begins climbing at about E. Baker St, and rises about 20… or so as you drive south. You cannot see any hint of the DR property or trees on your left until you…re about 200… or so from the property. The DR property is on your left after you climb the hill. Judging from the appearance of homes in the area, I would guess there was very little development south of E. Baker St in 1989. I…m not sure E. Baker St actually existed at the time (maybe a local could confirm this?). It is quite possible, even likely, that the abductor(s) were watching the streets near the Tom Thumb, and would have seen Jacob, Trevor, and Aaron come from the south. And in turn, knowing they were likely to go back they way.
5. From the DR property vantage point, there appears to be good visibility toward the cul de sacs to the south (Wetterling home is in one of these cul de sacs), but ONLY if a person were standing on the east, south, or west sides of the woods surrounding the DR home. There could be no visibility from the house itself to the road or cul de sacs, whether day or night. Depending on what crops were in the field directly south of the DR property, a person may be able to have relatively good view of flashlights moving northward on 9th / 16th. If the crop was corn, and the corn was not yet harvested, visibility would be limited. If the crop was other than corn, or was harvested corn, visibility from that vantage point would be relatively unobstructed. Visibility would be limited only by the strength and distance of the light.
6. There are a number of factors that make it difficult to believe the abductor could have been on foot, by anyone other than a neighbor. First, the nearest highway to the north is about 1 mile away. While the terrain appears to be passable on foot today, the abductor would have been walking toward the city of St Joseph, or highway 75, dragging an 11 year old child. Doesn…t seem like a smart thing for an abductor to do. To the east, there is the Sauk River, which cannot be crossed or navigated without a watercraft. To the south, the nearest road is about 1 ½ mile away, likely a ½ hour or longer trek through fields and woods. To the west, the nearest road is also about a mile away, again with fields and woods in the way. Also, we know that dogs tracked Jacob’s scent only a short distance up the DR driveway, and there the scent disappeared. Had the abductor been on foot, surely Jacob’s scent would have been picked up elsewhere. And lastly, if the abductor had been of foot, with the rough terrain and woods, there would have no doubt been a piece of clothing caught in brush or branches somewhere.
ELOCsoul | May 14, 2013 at 5:46 am
From the October 24, 1989 St Cloud Times:
by Stephen Lowe
STRANGER ABDUCTIONS RARE, PREMEDITATED, EXPERT SAYS
Stranger abductions like the reported snatching of a St. Joseph boy are rare, according to a national expert.
The abductions account for 3 percent of missing children cases, said Les Davies, national executive director of the Adam Walsh Child Resource Center in West Palm Beach, Fla. The vast majority of these cases involve non-custodial parents kidnapping their kids.
Most stranger abductions are premeditated, Davies said.
Jacob Wetterling, an 11 year old St. Joseph boy, was abducted at gun point Sunday night by a masked man.
The abductor may have cased the neighborhood near St. Joseph and laid out elaborate plans, Davies said. “It’s usually not a hit and miss situation.”
“But at gun point is rare.” Usually, abductors try to lure a child to go with them, he said.
Stranger abductions often involve pedophiles who sexually abuse their victims, Davies said.
“These are the tougher ones to solve,” he said. “These are the ones that more often have a tragic ending.”
Many cases are solved through neighbors reports of suspicious-looking people in the days preceding the kidnapping.
Media attention is also crucial, Davies said.
“The best hope is that the case will be publicized,” he said. In addition to news reports, fliers have been distributed and the case has gone national with a television campaign that mentions Wetterling.
Jbrown | May 16, 2013 at 1:35 pm
Interview every priest that was alive and living on campus at SJU at the time of the abduction. You may find some answers.
Denise | May 24, 2014 at 9:05 am
Wow ELOCsoul great post!!

A stunner in Cleveland

Next time

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